Just in Case

Sarah Palin got on my radar over a year ago by stumbling across the Campaign2008VictoryA blog. That same blogger recently sent out an email that had an interesting observation regarding Obama's polling lead:

The "polls" this year are more suspect than usual, with a lot of people saying they will vote for Obama -- but apparentely planning to vote for McCain-Palin.

Something similar happened in the Democratic Primaries, where Obama "polled" much better than he did in the voting booth (especially in PA, but also in several other states).

Remember way back to the NH Primary in January, where Obama had a "double-digit lead" and supposedly Mrs. Clinton was toast? She ended up winning that Primary by a substantial margin. She also won Texas and Indiana, where the polls showed Obama with a fairly comfortable lead.

In polls, as in the rest of life, most people will tell the surveyers what they really believe. However, many people will say what they think the pollsters want to hear. There's no other way to explain why the polls were so dramatically wrong in states such as NH and PA during the primaries.

Now, I realize that if Senator Obama doesn't win on Election Day, many of my far left-leaning readers will be evaluating their options. So, I thought I'd throw this out there...

Dead Heat is Bad News for Heinrich

That statistical dead heat in the 1st Congressional District race is bad news for Martin Heinrich (subscription):

The 1st Congressional District race is a close one, with Republican Darren White and Democrat Martin Heinrich running nearly even for the open seat, a Journal Poll found.

In interviews with likely voters, Heinrich, a former Albuquerque city councilor, was two points ahead of White, the Bernalillo County sheriff.

Heinrich was backed by 43 percent of the registered, likely voters in the 1st Congressional District survey. White had 41 percent. Sixteen percent were undecided.

The survey was conducted Sept. 29-Oct. 2 and has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points plus or minus. Heinrich's 2-point edge over White wasn't statistically significant, said Brian Sanderoff, president of Research & Polling Inc. in Albuquerque, which conducted the poll.

I'm not going to sugarcoat it. Republicans have an uphill battle this year for a variety of reasons. We all know that. Although I admit I'm confused as to how some folks can be enamored of a change to Democratic control. After all, the Democrats won Congress two years ago on a platform of change, and look how well that has worked out for all of us.

Anyway, back to the poll. Heinrich has more money than White, and based on Democratic performance in mid-term elections in Republican strongholds across the country, Heinrich should be sweeping Darren White in the polls, but he is not.

Disclaimer stuff: In case you missed the previous disclaimers, I'm a big White supporter.

Governor Bill Richardson is a Class Act

Governor Bill Richardson spends the better part of a year gallivanting around the country and doing his best impression of Don Quixote, then comes back to New Mexico, grows a beard, and starts throwing barbs at everyone he can find. First, he calls the Legislature a bunch of do nothings, and now he takes aims at his own state party:

Gov. Bill Richardson released a statement tonight expressing his disappointment at how the caucus was run. Richardson was instrumental in getting the state’s Democrats to switch in 2004 to a caucus system that allowed them to move up the date and have a greater voice in the presidential selection process.

In the news release, the governor took credit for the success of the 2004 caucus, saying it was well-organized, well-funded and well-executed “through his personal efforts and those of his organization.” This year, the release stated, he was focused on running for president and is now focused on the Legislature.

Sorry, but if you ask me, the sitting Democratic Governor, who just happened to run for President, is the de facto head of the State Democratic Party. If he had still been in the race, you better believe he would have lent a hand and asked his minions to help. Instead, like a spoiled child, he is now pointing fingers at everyone else and saying, "It's your fault."

Kind of makes you wonder who he is going to blame when awareness of the economic downturn in New Mexico becomes common knowledge. If he stays true to form, there is no way he'll own up to the fact that his bad investments and unsound fiscal policy are the culprit, anymore then he is willing to take credit for the lack of leadership he has shown since returning to New Mexico.

One last note... neither the legislature, nor the Democratic Party officials are paid to do their job. They are volunteers. As someone, who at once upon a time ran a not-for-profit, I can tell you it is in truly bad form to blame the volunteers for the shortcomings of the paid staff.

Legislating Ethics

Big SIGH... An Albuquerque Journal poll has 88% of Democrats supporting stricter ethic laws.

You can't legislate ethics. Sorry, it would be nice if you could, but you can't. Why? Well, it's pretty simple. Ethical behavior is how a person acts when they think no one is looking and they believe there is no chance of them getting caught.

Somethings can be legislated, some can't. Ethics is one of those things that can't. Sure, you can pass new laws that make you feel better, but they won't make people behave ethically. Which leaves us with the question of whether or not we need new ethics laws?

Stop and think for a minute and you'll realize that we don't. Several elected officials have been indicted in the last couple of years under current laws, so we know there are laws on the books to punish those whose unethical behavior is illegal.

Now what's scary about this argument is that it puts me in agreement with New Mexico House Speaker Ben Lujan (subscription):

House Speaker Ben Lujan, D-Santa Fe, said he thought his chamber will endorse additional proposals next year, although he was hesitant about establishing a state ethics commission.

"The issue here is ethical conduct," he said of the proposed commission. "You're never going to be able to legislate morals. You have those rules in Congress and look at what is happening there."

And, you know what? Speaker Ben Lujan knows of what he speaks. So, where does that leave us? If we really want ethical politicians, then we as voters need to take the time to care enough to vote out those who do not act ethically. That's the solution, plain and simple.

Interesting Straw Poll

I've told candidate after candidate that they should consider blogging. This is especially true if they are the financial underdog. Usually, my advice falls on deaf ears. Governor Richardson is not one of those candidates whom I've advised. However, he has fully embraced the blogosphere, and it will be interesting to see what impact, if any, that has in the Democratic Primary.

As near as I can tell, Governor Richardson's name ID is not where he needs it to be on an a national scale, but this straw poll (hat tip reader KJF) would seem to indicate that he is either:

1. doing very well with political junkies.

OR

2. already has an active base in the blogging world.

My guess is that it is a little of both. I'll be tracking the poll in the coming months, and will probably add the widget to my site when it becomes available.